Frequently Asked Questions

Project Risk Ratings offers a simple way to assess the initial risk of announced projects with a straight forward score of 0-100, using four weighted elemental factors: Feedstock Reliability, Carbon Incentive Security, Market Forces Adaptability and Economic Resilience.

1. What is the rationale for choosing the four elemental factors?

The four elemental factors chosen for Project Risk Ratings are:

• Feedstock reliability

• Carbon incentive security

• Market forces adaptability

• Economic resilience

The four elements were chosen because they all display a combination of significance, according to proprietary surveys conducted with Digest readers, and they are readily available or easily identifiable for most bioeconomy projects that have been announced. The objective of Project Risk Ratings is to provide a fast, triage-level risk rating to accelerate stakeholder engagement, as requested by the 40 Bold Actions to Accelerate the Bioeconomy, drafted by the Bold Goals Action Group in 2024.

Feedstock reliability is based on the feedstock type, using feedstock risk ratings which may be developed by Ecostrat. PRECISION ratings use actual project specific feedstock risk ratings.

Carbon incentive security is based on the Carbon Intensity as posted by the California Air Resource Board LCFS Pathway Certified Carbon Intensity values. PRECISION ratings use actual project specific life cycle analysis which may be provided by Boundless Impact Research & Analytics.

Market forces adaptability is measured in the Digest’s SuperData, an analysis of 300 projects developed no later than 2014 and their outcome as of 2024. 90 percent of projects that were non-successful or otherwise non-operational 10 years after announcement have closed for non-technical reasons.

Economic resilience measures the sensitivity to changes in the assumptions of base-case Return on Investment models, or project specific ROI analysis supplied by projects under NDA.

2. How are the four elemental factors weighted for the Project Risk Ratings score?

The four elemental factors chosen for Project Risk Ratings are:

• Feedstock reliability

• Carbon incentive security

• Market forces adaptability

• Economic resilience

These four elements are weighted according to the rank and importance surveyed with Digest readers through the Bioeconomy Business Outlook proprietary survey conducted periodically with the Digest’s readers.

3. How does the Project Risk Ratings score of one project compare to other projects?

Every Project Risk Ratings report includes the quintiles of all projects scored. This allows a comparative assessment of each score. All scores lie between 0 and 100, but the distribution is suggested by the following quintiles:

4. What is the difference between INITIAL Ratings and PRECISION Ratings?

Subscription to Project Risk Ratings includes all ratings, whether they are INITIAL Ratings or PRECISION Ratings.

5. How are the partners Ecostrat and Boundless Impact Research & Analytics involved in Project Risk Ratings?

Project Risk Ratings uses the analyses carried out by partners to benchmark some of the elemental factors used in the risk score. Ecostrat provides robust feedstock supply chain analyses which serve to assess feedstock type risks. Boundless Impact Research & Analytics provides extensive life cycle analysis to evaluate carbon intensity benchmarks. Both partners may provide services to Project Developers who wish to obtain a PRECISION Rating.

6. How are Project Risk Ratings scores calculated for projects that have supplied no specific data?

Project Risk Ratings are a standards-based-assessment of industrial projects. These ratings are based on independently-sourced, verified data — seventeen years of historical project data relating to financial, technical and carbon performance, industry studies collected by The Digest, proprietary surveys of Digest readers to determine how markets weigh risk factors, and data developed by Digest partners Boundless Impact (TEA, LCA) and Ecostrat (Feedstock Risk Ratings).

The objective of Project Risk Ratings is to provide a fast, triage-level risk rating to accelerate stakeholder engagement by using data which is significant and readily available or relatively easy to find.

INITIAL Ratings are issued for projects where some of the analysis is based on standard industry benchmarks — where project data has not been disclosed or is not yet available.

PRECISION Ratings are issued for projects that have project-specific ROI, LCA, and project-speciifc Feedstock Risk Ratings.

Subscription to Project Risk Ratings includes all ratings, whether they are INITIAL Ratings or PRECISION Ratings.

7. How often are Project Risk Ratings scores updated?

Project Risk Ratings will publish updates quarterly with new issuances, and any updates to existing Ratings. Subscriptions include access to all quarterly updated for the year of subscription.

8. How many projects are included in the subscription?

Project Risk Ratings has an initial data set of 20 projects launched at ABLC 2024 on March 14th in Washington DC. 30 more projects and any updates will be published during April 2024. Depending on Projects publicly announced, and projects directly informed to Project Risk Ratings, a data set of 100 projects is planned for July 2024.

9. What is the cost for the Project Developer to get a Project rated?

When any given project has been publicly announced, Project Risk Ratings will publish an INITIAL Rating. There is no cost for the Project developer, and the Project will be included in the data set.

If a Project Developer wishes to obtain a PRECISION Rating, they may contract third parties such as Ecostrat and Boundless Impact Research & Analytics to obtain project specific ROI, LCA, and Feedstock Risk Ratings. The cost for those services is external to Project Risk Ratings. There is no cost for supplying project specific data to Project Risk Ratings.

10. What sort of industrial projects are considered in Project Risk Ratings?

All industrial projects that involve CO2 reduction, GHG reduction, carbon capture and storage, bio-based materials, fossil reduction and other new and yet unknown technologies will be considered as bioeconomy industrial projects.

Project Risk Ratings are available to subscribers for $1,895 per year for up to 300 projects, all updates on existing ratings, and new rating issuances that occur in the subscription year.

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